Bogut-less Bucks visit Bulls
Basketball Betting Lines
01/27/2012 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It has been a season of frustration for Bucks center Andrew
Bogut and his latest setback will keep him out of action indefinitely. That
leaves Milwaukee a big hole in the middle this evening as it visits a Chicago Bulls club looking to rebound from its first home loss of the season.
Bogut, Milwaukee's leading rebounder with 8.3 per game to go along with 11.3
points and 2.0 blocks a night, sat out four straight games due to personal
reasons from Jan. 3-8 and also missed a game on Jan. 13 due to concussion-like
symptoms. He returned to action three nights later and played in six straight
contests including Wednesday's 105-99 victory over Houston.
The seven-footer played just nine minutes and 29 seconds though before
suffering a left ankle injury that was revealed by an MRI yesterday to be a
fracture. That will put the top pick of the 2005 draft out of action for the
foreseeable future.
It's just the latest setback for Bogut, who has also battled right elbow,
wrist and hand injuries as well as a lower back issue in his career.
"I just can't seem to catch a break," said Bogut on Wednesday in what was his
400th career game. "Coming back from injuries is tough. It's unlucky and
frustrating. Someone has a voodoo doll and is putting pins in me."
Milwaukee was able to survive without its big man, getting 20 points each from
Brandon Jennings and Stephen Jackson for the club's first win in Houston since
Nov. 2, 1999. It was the Bucks' third win in four games overall and third
straight on the road after starting the season 0-8 as the guest.
Jennings, who is averaging 26.0 points per game over his last five contests,
added six assists and Mike Dunleavy Jr. deposited a season-high 18 points as
Milwaukee won for the first time this year when trailing at the half. It has
its bench to thank after the unit outscored Houston's reserves by 51 points.
Ersan Ilyasova stepped in for Bogut and grabbed a career-high 19 rebounds.
"It was a good win," said Dunleavy. "We're starting to play well on the road.
We got a cushion in the fourth quarter and held on to win."
The Bucks recent success on the road figures to be challenged tonight by the
Bulls, who captured their first eight in Chicago prior to Wednesday's 95-90
setback to the visiting Pacers. The loss snapped the Bulls' four-game overall
win streak and was only their second in their past 11 overall.
Though Derrick Rose played in his second game since missing the previous five
due to a left toe sprain, the guard netted just two of his 24 points in the
fourth quarter. Ronnie Brewer added 20 points and 10 rebounds for a Chicago
club that remains without Luol Deng and Taj Gibson. Deng has missed the past
two with a left wrist ailment, while Gibson is battling a left ankle sprain.
Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau didn't think his team was ready to play, and Rose
respected that position.
"As a player, I didn't see it. But as a coach, he sees everything," said Rose.
"So the only thing we can do is come here (next time) and go through the
shootaround and the walk-though and be professional."
Chicago wraps a four-game homestand looking to avoid consecutive losses for
the first time this season. The club hasn't lost two straight in nearly a
year, since Feb. 5-7, and has still won 44 of its past 50 at home dating back
to last season.
The Bulls swept the Bucks in four games a season ago for the first time since
the 2006-07 season and have won seven of the past 10 encounters overall.
Milwaukee has lost two straight, 10 of 11 and 17 of its last 20 in Chicago.
<< Cavs and Nets meet at The Q
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Nets have yet to win consecutive games this
season. The Cleveland Cavaliers have done it just once.
Both teams will be trying to put together win streaks this evening at Quicken
Loans Arena.
The Nets have
<< Mavs hope to rebound with Jazz in town
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Celebrations don't seem to be agreeing with the Dallas
Mavericks and the reigning NBA champs are probably glad they can put the
ceremonies in the rearview mirror as they get ready to host the Utah Jazz.
The Mav
<< Nuggets aim to stay hot vs. Raptors
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The streaking Denver Nuggets aim for a sixth straight win
tonight when they host a Toronto team that expects to be without leading
scorer Andrea Bargnani.
The Nuggets are fresh off a brilliant 5-0 road trip tha
<< Blazers welcome Suns to Rip City
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Blazers haven't been much of a threat away from Rip
City this season but things have been far different when they are hitting the
hardwood in the Pacific Northwest.
Portland will shoot for its sixth straight win a
<< Thunder, Warriors collide in Oakland
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Western Conference-leading Thunder will kick off a
three-game road trip tonight when they visit Oakland to take on the Golden
State Warriors.
The Thunder (15-3) won their third straight game and for the 11th
Wolves welcome Spurs to the Twin Cities >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Timberwolves were able to snap a 16-game
losing streak to the San Antonio Spurs when the two clubs met in early January
and shoot for a rare win streak in the series tonight at the Target Center.
The Timberwo
Sixers try to bounce back vs. bumbling Bobcats >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia 76ers try to bounce back from a rare loss
at home this evening when they welcome the hapless Charlotte Bobcats to the
Wells Fargo Center.
Philadelphia lost for only the second time in 10 tries in front of
Wagner will play FBS school for first time >>
Staten Island, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Wagner College football program will
open its 2012 season at Florida Atlantic - the Seahawks' first game against a
Football Bowl Subdivision school.
Wagner announced an 11-game schedule on Friday, beg
Phillies sign OF Pierre >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies on Friday inked
outfielder Juan Pierre to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring
training.
The 34-year-old veteran finished 2011 with a .279 average, two home run
Inter aims to bounce back against Lecce >>
Lecce, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Inter Milan will attempt to get back to
winning ways on Sunday at Lecce after the club saw its eight-match winning
streak halted in the Coppa Italia by Napoli in midweek.
The 2-0 setback prevent
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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